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Employment Opportunities for College Graduates in the U.S. Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resources System 2005-2010

Methodology

These are the general steps taken to extrapolate and analyze data for the Employment Opportunities for College Graduates in the U.S. Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resources System brochure published in 2005. The files provided match those utilized in the calculation of available qualified college graduates and potential employment opportunities.

Availability of Qualified Graduates

Step 1:
Reviewed the Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) codes from National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), determined the codes (disciplines) from the previous studies of Employment Opportunities for College Graduates in the Food and Agricultural Sciences - United States were appropriate. The Panel of Experts (POE) reviewed the list and made adjustments. Table 1 provides the 1990 CIP's from NCES, in Adobe Format.

Step 2:
Each selected Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) was identified as either "agriculture" or "allied" fields. Agriculture fields were those identified as being collected through the Food and Agricultural Education Information System (FAEIS)-data collected from institutions offering programs in food, agriculture, natural resources and human sciences in specific areas. (NOTE: some areas that would not "normally" be identified as "agriculture" are identified as agriculture due to the fact a specific track within the major may be directly related to agriculture. Examples of these fields for this study would include: Architectural Environmental Design, Sociology, and Medical Dietician.) Allied fields were those that would provide graduates who would potentially work in jobs in food, agriculture, natural resources and veterinary medicine. Table 2 provides the selected CIP fields of study and their assigned area. (NOTE: This table presents the CIP codes with reported graduates; additional CIP codes might have been selected but graduates at the bachelor, master, doctoral or first professional levels might not have been reported under those codes for the 2001-2002 academic year.) Two hundred and five (205) CIP codes were selected (89 were classified as "agriculture" and the remaining 116 were classified as "allied".)

Step 3:
Data were extracted from (NCES) on graduates in the selected CIP's by degree level. These data were collected on graduates from July 1, 2001-June 30, 2002 through the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) survey completed each year by all institutions of higher education in the U.S. Gender and ethnicity of the graduates were extracted.

For this study, only U.S. citizens were utilized since they would be eligible for employment in the U.S. The Panel of Experts (POE) then reviewed each Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) and each degree level to assign a percentage of those graduates who would be expected to compete for job openings in the areas of food, agriculture, natural resources and veterinary medicine. Table 3 provides the percentages assigned by degree level.

Step 4:
Before assigning the proposed percentages to the actual number of graduates, the Panel of Experts (POE) determined several adjustments needed to be made. First, at the undergraduate level it was determined that approximately 2% of the graduates do not enter the workforce immediately upon graduation, nor do they enter graduate school. This 2% reduction of undergraduate degree recipients was applied to the total U.S. citizens reported by each Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) code. (Table 4 Column E represents the reduction)

Next, percentages which were agreed upon by the Panel of Experts by degree level from Table 3 were applied to each of the degree levels. (Table 4 Column G (bachelor), Column K (master), Column M (doctoral), and Column P (first professional) represent the available graduates expected to compete.)

Further adjustments were made to the Undergraduate and Master level graduates to account for those who continue for an advanced degree. To determine this percentage, several sources of information were reviewed including data reported in alumni surveys, and placement data reported to Food and Agricultural Education Information System (FAEIS). The total number of master and first professional (Doctor of Veterinary Medicine - DVM) graduates was divided by the total number of undergraduate degree recipients. This reflected the number of possible undergraduates who continued on to graduate school upon receiving undergraduate degrees. The calculated percentage was 24.74%. (Table 4 Column H represents this reduction.) This was applied to the number of U.S. undergraduates across all selected CIP codes to determine the final number of undergraduate degree recipients who would enter the workforce upon graduation. These would be the available undergraduates who would compete for jobs in the areas of food, agriculture, natural resources and veterinary medicine.

A similar calculation was done for graduates who received master degrees; the percentage of master degree recipients who continued to doctoral level studies was 19.02%. (Table 4 column L represents this reduction.) This number was applied to the number of U.S. master degree recipients to obtain the number of master level graduates who would be available enter the workforce upon graduation.

Available graduates by degree level by Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) are presented in Table 4. The four degree levels were aggregated to obtain one number for each CIP. Table 5 presents the final numbers of available U.S. graduates by CIP who could become part of the workforce.

Step 5:
The Panel of Experts (POE) identified Occupational Clusters in which the graduates would be employed. Four (4) clusters were assigned: Scientific and Engineering, Management & Business, Agricultural & Forestry Production and Education, Communication & Governmental Services. The POE assigned percentages by CIP to the 4 clusters. These figures are presented in Table 6. Table 7 provides the corresponding number of graduates available for entry into the workforce assigned to each cluster according to the percentages in Table 6.

Employment Opportunities

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor was extracted and reviewed. In the February, 2004 BLS Monthly Labor Review, occupational employment data for 2002 with projections to 2012 was published. Table 8 provides this information in Adobe format.

Step 1:
The Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) code and titles were extracted. These codes were reviewed by the Panel of Experts (POE). Those occupations that would be expected to require college graduates with food, agricultural, natural resources, and veterinary medicine expertise were selected. The average annual job openings due to growth and net replacements from 2002-2012 were calculated. (Total openings divided by 10.) Table 9 provides this information.

Step 2:
For each selected occupation the Panel of Experts (POE) assigned a percentage to the average annual projected openings that were deemed to require college graduates with food, agricultural, natural resources, and veterinary medicine expertise. Those percentages and the final total projected openings for one year are provided in Table 10.

Step 3:
Percentages were assigned by occupation into one or more of the four occupational clusters: Scientific and Engineering, Management & Business, Agricultural & Forestry Production and Education, Communication & Governmental Services. These percentages and actual number of projected job openings in each cluster are presented in Table 11.

Characteristics of Graduates of Colleges of Agriculture (as broadly defined) 2001-2002

The demographic characteristics of the graduates provided by NCES were reviewed. The tables on page 13 of the document were calculated utilizing these numbers. Analysis was based on all graduates, with no exclusions; a review of the Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) codes to identify those which were strictly "agriculture" was conducted. Other codes such as those mentioned in Step 2 Availability of Qualified Graduates, were not included in these calculations. Although foreign graduates were excluded from the report, due to the fact they are not eligible to work in the U.S., for the purposes of characterization they were identified to show the percentage of foreign graduates in agriculture programs at the various levels of study. Gender and ethnicity were calculated based on the U.S. citizens reported. Table 12 provides the data which were utilized to calculate the pie charts on page 13 of the summary report.

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